US Dollar Index recedes from tops, back near 98.30

11 Nov

DXY corrects lower following recent tops at 98.40. US 10-year yields closed around 1.95% last week. US-China trade, Powell likely to dominate the sentiment. The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is retreating to the 98.30 region at the beginning of the week, a tad lower than recent 3-week highs. US Dollar Index focused on trade, Powell, data After posting gains in every session of last week and following the breakout of the key barrier at 98.00 the figure, the index is giving away part of the recent gains around the 98.30 region while the upside momentum is showing some signs of exhaustion. In the meantime, the US-China trade scenario remains the exclusive driver for the price action in the global markets. Indeed, Asian markets closed in the red territory on Monday and the demand for the safe havens look firmer after President Trump said over the weekend that he still has to make a decision on rolling over some tariffs. In the US, the bond markets will be closed today due to the Veterans day, while the docket is empty ahead of a very interesting week where inflation figures, Powell’s testimony and Fedspeakers are expected to take centre stage. Later today, Boston Fed E.Rosengren (voter, hawkish) will speak in Oslo. What to look for around USD DXY keeps the trade above the 98.00 handle so far today, tracking the recent improvement in the US-China trade front and following positive results from domestic fundamentals. The Fed is now expected to remain vigilant mainly on the global scenario, where trade concerns and the impact on global growth remain in centre stage amidst some loss of momentum in the domestic economy. On the broader view, the outlook on DXY appears constructive on the back of the Fed’s renewed ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is losing 0.09% at 98.32 and faces the next support at 97.91 (100-day SMA) seconded by 97.51 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1). On the flip side, a break above 98.40 (monthly high Nov.8) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1).

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